"The PV industry must follow three development paths in the future: efficiency enhancement, metal reduction application, and reliability improvement." According to Professor Shen Wenzhong, Director of the Solar Energy Institute at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, the PV industry is currently at a critical juncture for choosing its technological roadmap.

On the afternoon of November 18, Professor Shen Wenzhong shared his insights on industry development trends during the 2025 China International PV and Energy Storage Industry Conference. He pointed out that the differentiation in crystalline silicon technology now primarily focuses on the competition and integration of three types of technologies: HJT, BC, and TOPCon.

Professor Shen observed a clear trend: the era where a single technology dominates the market is changing.

"Future technology will certainly involve the integrated development of these three types of technologies. This integration is already visible, with many companies attempting it. For example, Tongwei in our industry calls it HTBC, and we also refer to it as THBC. These are similar concepts – integrating the excellent technologies of BC, HJT, and TOPCon."

This integrated technology not only offers high efficiency but, more importantly, adapts to the industry"s need for metal reduction.

Shen Wenzhong emphasized that metal reduction has become an urgent priority for the industry.

"In TOPCon, the metallization cost now accounts for 90% of the total non-silicon cost, which is a staggering figure. Just one year ago, it was less than 50%. This 90% must be addressed; in other words, metal reduction is a major trend."

He predicted that the industry must make metal reduction very thorough within five years. The new integrated technology, due to its structural characteristics, is very suitable for metal reduction applications.

Professor Shen views the TOPCon overcapacity crisis as particularly pressing.

"Current TOPCon capacity is as high as 800-1000 GW, while market demand may only be around 400 GW. Half of the capacity might lie idle. Which half will survive this elimination race? I believe it still comes down to technological innovation."

He expects that the next two years will be a watershed moment for the TOPCon industry, where companies face the severe test of either being phased out or making it into that 50% list.

Regarding the development prospects of BC (back-contact) cells, Shen Wenzhong offered a specific prediction.

"BC cells have a relatively high barrier to entry, so their development won"t be as rapid as TOPCon"s. Last year, the shipment volume for BC cells was approximately 25 GW. This year, it might be around 45 to 50 GW, and next year, it will likely reach 100 GW."

Although 100 GW is still small compared to TOPCon"s 400 GW, the doubling growth year-on-year demonstrates strong potential.

While technological iterations are rapid, Shen Wenzhong particularly emphasized the importance of product quality and reliability.

"Improving efficiency bit by bit is certainly necessary, but reliability is more crucial because, after all, these products are meant to last for thirty years or even longer. Amidst the "internal competition" within our industry, and as efforts against this "internal competition" yield results, we must elevate the emphasis on quality to a very high level while improving efficiency."

In Professor Shen Wenzhong"s view, the PV industry must adhere to these three development paths: efficiency enhancement, metal reduction application, and reliability improvement; none can be neglected. Against the backdrop of increasingly intense competition among technological roadmaps, Professor Shen firmly believes that quality and reliability are the cornerstones for the long-term development of the PV industry. (Text and Images by Huang Shengjun)